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Verona Pharma plc (VRNA)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q1 2025 revenue surged to $76.3M, driven by Ohtuvayre net sales of $71.3M and a $5.0M milestone; revenue grew ~95% sequentially vs Q4 2024 and exceeded operating expenses excluding non-cash charges .
  • Street revenue was materially exceeded while GAAP EPS per ADS missed: revenue beat consensus ($76.3M vs $53.3M*), but GAAP EPS per ADS was -$0.16* vs -$0.12* consensus; adjusted net income reached $20.5M on exclusion of $36.8M share-based comp .
  • Launch KPIs strengthened: ~25,000 prescriptions, ~5,300 prescribers (+~50% QoQ), refills = ~60% of dispenses; management plans to add ~30 reps (to ~120 total) in Q3 to accelerate uptake .
  • Catalysts ahead: price stability expected through 2025, gross-to-net “well below 20%” exiting Q1, EU/UK regulatory submissions advancing, and China Phase 3 data by Nuance Pharma expected in Q2 2025 .

Values marked * retrieved from S&P Global.

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Ohtuvayre launch momentum: “we almost doubled sales of Ohtuvayre compared to the fourth quarter of 2024 recording $71.3 million in net product sales” .
  • Strong KPIs: ~25,000 prescriptions; ~5,300 prescribers (60% Tier 1); ~60% of dispenses were refills; >425 HCPs prescribed to ≥20 patients .
  • Gross-to-net improving: “well below 20% as we exited the quarter” — supporting better net realization .

What Went Wrong

  • GAAP profitability still negative despite revenue strength: operating loss of $10.3M and net loss of $16.3M due to high SG&A and interest expense; share-based comp elevated at $36.8M .
  • GAAP EPS miss vs consensus (-$0.16 per ADS* vs -$0.12*), reflecting continued OpEx build and financing costs as launch scales [GetEstimates*].
  • R&D and SG&A ramp: R&D rose to $14.1M (+$7.3M YoY) and SG&A to $69.1M (+$48.7M YoY) as commercial build-out continued .

Values marked * retrieved from S&P Global.

Financial Results

Revenue, EPS, and Margins vs Prior Periods and Estimates

MetricQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Net Revenue ($USD Millions)$5.624 $36.655 $76.256
Net Product Sales ($USD Millions)$5.624 $36.637 $71.256
Other Revenue ($USD Millions)$0.000 $0.018 $5.000
GAAP EPS per Ordinary Share ($USD)$(0.07) $(0.05) $(0.02)
GAAP EPS per ADS ($USD)$(0.56)*$(0.40)*$(0.16)*
Revenue Consensus ($USD Millions)$2.0618*$33.0995*$53.2816*
EPS Consensus per ADS ($USD)$(0.3171)*$(0.1650)*$(0.1186)*
Gross Profit Margin %—94.44%*95.53%*
EBIT Margin %—-48.51%*-13.53%*
Net Income Margin %—-92.28%*-21.40%*
  • Beat/Miss vs Estimates: Revenue — Q3: Beat; Q4: Beat; Q1: Beat. EPS — Q3: Miss; Q4: Miss; Q1: Miss [GetEstimates*].
  • Q1 sequential revenue growth: ~+108% vs Q4 ($76.3M vs $36.7M) driven by prescription growth and refill momentum .
  • YoY: Q1 revenue vs Q1 2024 ($0M) reflects first full launch periods; Q1 2025 GAAP EPS per ordinary share improved to $(0.02) vs $(0.04) in Q1 2024 .

Values marked * retrieved from S&P Global.

Segment/Component Breakdown (Revenue)

ComponentQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Net Product Sales ($USD Millions)$5.624 $36.637 $71.256
Milestones/Other ($USD Millions)$0.000 $0.018 $5.000

KPIs

KPIQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Prescriptions Filled>5,000 “More prescriptions through Feb 2025 than Q4” ~25,000
Unique Prescribers>2,200 >4,600 (~55% Tier 1) ~5,300 (~60% Tier 1)
Refills Share of Dispenses—Early persistency noted ~60%
HCPs with ≥20 Patients—>275 >425
New Patient Starts—Growing month-over-month >25% greater vs Q4

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Gross-to-Net Discount2025 trajectoryBelow ~25% (prior commentary) “Well below 20%” exiting Q1 Improved
Price2025Not specified“Stable through 2025” Maintained
Sales Force SizeQ3 2025~90 reps (implied)Add ~30 reps to ~120 total Raised capacity
Operating Cash DynamicsQ1 2025 onwardN/ARun-rate revenue exceeds cash expenses; not at cash-flow breakeven due to AR build Clarified
EU/UK Regulatory2025Initiating activities Advancing to potential submissions; midyear clarity expected Progressing
China (Nuance)Q2 2025Enrollment completed Pivotal Phase 3 readout expected in Q2 2025 Timing specified

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicQ-2 (Q3 2024)Q-1 (Q4 2024)Current (Q1 2025)Trend
Launch Performance$5.6M net sales; >2,200 prescribers; >5,000 scripts $36.6M net sales; >4,600 prescribers; strong refills $71.3M net sales; ~25k scripts; ~5,300 prescribers; 60% refills Accelerating
Gross-to-NetEarly expectations ~25% Below 25% Well below 20% exiting Q1 Improving, stabilizing
Reimbursement/Part BMed benefit ~80%; low copays with supplemental; access robust Same themes reiterated Medicare Part D redesign not impactful; 80% through medical benefit Stable access
Pricing/Macro (tariffs/inflation)——Price stable through 2025 Stable
Regulatory (EU/UK)Initiating activities Initiating filings prep Advancing submissions; midyear clarity Progressing
China Partner (Nuance)Phase 3 enrollment completed Macau approval; mid-2025 readout Macau approval; Q2 2025 readout Near-term catalyst
R&D ExecutionPhase 2 programs initiated (bronchiectasis, FDC) Glycopyrrolate dose-ranging completed; plan Phase 2b FDC in H2 2025 Continue enrollment; Phase 2b FDC H2 2025 On plan
Competitive Landscape (Biologics)——Viewed complementary; Ohtuvayre provides bronchodilation + anti-inflammatory Constructive

Management Commentary

  • “We almost doubled sales of Ohtuvayre compared to the fourth quarter of 2024 recording $71.3 million in net product sales… Prescriptions increased to approximately 25,000… refills represented 60% of all dispenses” — CEO David Zaccardelli .
  • “Well below 20% [gross-to-net] as we exited the quarter… getting to a point of stabilizing” — CFO Mark Hahn .
  • “We see the price of Ohtuvayre as stable through 2025” — CEO David Zaccardelli .
  • “On an adjusted basis, we had an adjusted net income for the quarter of $20.5 million” — CFO Mark Hahn .

Q&A Highlights

  • Run-rate and trajectory: Management emphasized strong new patient adds and refill “stacking,” avoiding specific Q2 projections but expressing confidence in growth .
  • Gross-to-net: Trending “well below 20%” with limited further improvement expected as it stabilizes .
  • Cash flow: Not at operating cash flow breakeven due to AR build, but revenue run-rate exceeds cash expenses .
  • Competition: Biologics viewed as complementary; Ohtuvayre’s bronchodilation plus anti-inflammatory profile differentiates and can be combined if appropriate .
  • Medicare Part D redesign: Minimal impact given ~80% reimbursement under medical benefit (Part B/Medicare Advantage) .

Estimates Context

  • Q1 2025: Revenue $76.256M vs consensus $53.282M* (beat); GAAP EPS per ADS -$0.16* vs -$0.1186* (miss) [GetEstimates*].
  • Q4 2024: Revenue $36.655M vs consensus $33.100M* (beat); GAAP EPS per ADS -$0.40* vs -$0.165* (miss) [GetEstimates*].
  • Q3 2024: Revenue $5.624M vs consensus $2.062M* (beat); GAAP EPS per ADS -$0.56* vs -$0.317* (miss) [GetEstimates*].

Values marked * retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Revenue trajectory remains steep with sequential growth and broadening prescriber depth; adding ~30 reps in Q3 should sustain momentum .
  • Street revenue expectations were significantly exceeded in Q1; expect estimate revisions higher on topline, while GAAP EPS may remain pressured by share-based comp and commercialization costs near term [GetEstimates*].
  • Improving gross-to-net and price stability in 2025 support durable net realization and margin leverage as SG&A normalizes over time .
  • Near-term catalysts: EU/UK regulatory progress and China Phase 3 readout in Q2 2025 could expand the global opportunity and sentiment .
  • Risk monitor: execution in scaling supply/distribution and managing OpEx; interest expense remains notable; watch share-based comp impact on GAAP EPS .
  • Tactical: Favor momentum and catalysts; dips from EPS optics may present entries given persistent revenue beats and improving unit economics [GetEstimates*] .

Values marked * retrieved from S&P Global.